John T. RAMSEY “Beware the Ides of March: An Astrological Prediction?”

In a recent article (Celator 1994. 6-10), Michael Molnar has presented an intriguing theory to explain why the haruspex Spurinna warned Caesar “Beware the Ides of March.” Molnar points out that according to Valerius Maximus (8.11.2), this warning was issued 30 days in advance of the Ides, leading Molnar to speculate that Spurinna may have been practising the art of an astrologer, as opposed to that of an haruspex (a view previously espoused, without argument, by Frederick Cramer in Astrology in Roman Politics [1954] 77). It is my contention, on the contrary, that Spurinna’s prophecy was grounded in the usual practices of an haruspex. Furthermore, I believe that we can identify the probable date (February 15th) and nature of the specific sacrifice at which Spurinna issued his warning.

Molnar proposes astrological answers to two questions: (1) what made the thirty days leading up to the Ides of March threatening, and (2) how could the threat be viewed as directed specifically against Caesar. Casting a horoscope for the Ides of March, Molnar finds that the positions of the planets, particularly Caesar’s special “star” Venus were decidedly ominous, portending violent death. Nonetheless, while it is true that the celestial alignments were unfavorable, we can be certain that it was not astrology but the more usual inspection of animal entrails that led Spurinna to utter his warning to Caesar, at a sacrifice being conducted by Caesar himself. This much Suetonius (Iul. 81.2) tells us, and although Suetonius does not, unfortunately, indicate the precise date of the sacrifice or nature of the ominous entrails, both pieces of information can be gleaned from other sources.

The sacrifice mentioned by Suetonius is almost certainly the one at which the absence of a heart in a sacrificial victim caused Spurinna to warn Caesar that his life was in danger. Cicero (De div. 1.119) places this sacrifice “a little before Caesar’s murder,” and the date can be fixed more precisely as no later than 15 Feb. since we are told that it took place on the day when Caesar for the first time availed himself of the honor of wearing a purple robe and sitting upon a gilded chair, regalia, which, we know, Caesar displayed at the Lupercalia (Cic. Phil. 2.85)—hence, no doubt, the later tradition that the Ides of March capped an ominous 30-day period (Val. Max. 8.11.2).

It is not difficult to devine why Spurinna viewed the following month as fraught with danger to Caesar or why he settled upon the Ides as the day of greatest risk. The meeting of the Senate called for the Ides would be the last occasion on which it could be known far in advance that Caesar would appear in public, without an armed bodyguard, before his departure for his Parthian campaign (on 18 March). Rumors of various plots were rife, and Caesar’s maneuvering for regal honors at the Lupercalia is credited with giving the final push to the conspirators.